Friday, April 13, 2012

And So, The Jobless Claims Games Continue

Yesterday morning, the news media was shocked and dismayed to see that first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose to a 4-month high at 380,000.

Just three weeks ago the claims number was reported to be 348,000 -- a four-year low -- and the left-wing news media was doing victory laps for Obama.  The always left-wing LA Times wrote: "New claims for unemployment benefits fell again last week to 348,000, a new four-year low as the economic recovery continues to accelerate."  But, what most people don't seem to realize is that the very next week that 348,000 number was corrected upwards to 368,500.  Not exactly a four-year low anymore. And, certainly not an economy that the Times claimed was accelerating.

While it is obvious that we are much better off than last year when claims consistently remained above the 400,000 mark, this economy is not roaring back.  But, in an election year, expect the news media to nuance everything to help Obama out.  In fact, this morning's terrible claims number is being tamped down by opinion writers and reporters finding every possible excuse for it.  Some idiots even blamed the number on  the Easter holiday.  The silliness of that argument is that any holiday usually results in an abnormally lower claims number because the unemployment offices are typically closed for at least one day and people are out of town and unable to file. If anything, the 380,000 might be understated and subject to an upward revision next week.  Something that the Obama Labor Department has consistently done for the last three years.  That's why, almost every week, the news headlines will read something like: "Jobless Claims Fall Again."   But, in fact, the "Fall" is always due to a revision upwards of the prior week's number; a game that continually results in better headlines for the President.  In reality, the claims number is merely running in place.

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