Obama's Reelection Chances By The Numbers

For now, Barack Obama is betting his reelection bid on two numbers: 1% and 10%.

The 1% are what those that the "Occupy Anything and Everything" refer to as this nation's wealthy. In lock step with the occupiers, Barack Obama has been hammering the wealthy; claiming that they should pay more taxes. Or, in his words, pay their fair share. Of course, this is an attempt to garner votes based on class warfare. But, the number that Obama should be paying attention to is 75%. That's the number of likely voters who believe that the top wage earners are already paying too much in taxes. This is based on a recent poll by The Hill online political magazine.

Then, there's that 10% number. That's the current approval rate of Congress. With Obama's own approval below 50%, he figures he can run against unpopular and "do nothing" Congress in order to win a second term. But, that 10% number is nothing in comparison to three other numbers: 7.2%, 53%, and 45%.

First off, no President has ever won reelection with an unemployment rate above 7.2%; and, the chances that this President will see anything close to that number in the Fall is plain folly. Gallup just reported that, through their normal monthly polling, the unemployment rate jumped to 9% in February. This after having reported an 8.6% rate for January. Usually, the Gallup reported changes in the unemployment rate presage the official, federally-reported number by a few months. That's why the current down-trend in the official, federally-reported unemployment rate might be coming to an end.

Then, there's the 53% number. Based on a new USA Today/Gallup poll, that's the number of voters, in critical swing state,s who think ObamaCare is unconstitutional and think it should be repealed. Of course, those voters understand that ObamaCare won't be repealed unless Obama is out of office.

Lastly, there the big enchilada. That's Obama's current Gallup approval rating. As of 2/28, it's just 43%. No President in modern history has been reelected with an election eve Gallup approval rating that was below 49%. Ford failed at 48%. Carter didn't do it with his horrible 31%. And, "no new taxes", George H.W. Bush, became a one-term President with a lowly 39% approval rating. If Obama's approval remains in the low to mid-40 percentile, he, too, will be a one-term President. (Note: The Presidential approval rate data comes from a January 2011 New York Times article written by Nate Silver: "Approval Ratings and Re-Election Odds").